Using the FiveThirtyEight model, see how the election odds shift with different scenarios
With each model update, FiveThirtyEight runs 40,000 simulations, or what-ifs, to calculate the…Tags: election, FiveThirtyEight, simulation
Tag: Statistics
Tips for not letting polls and forecasts occupy your mind for two weeks
For FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver provides tips to stay less stressed staring into the…Tags: election, FiveThirtyEight, forecast
Real-time analytics
There’s an ancient saying “Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad.” (Mad as in crazy, not mad as in angry.) I wrote a variation of this on Twitter: Whom the gods would destroy, they first give real-time analytics. Having more up-to-date information is only valuable up to a …
Making a convincing deepfake
For MIT Technology Review, Karen Hao looks into the process of artists Francesca…Tags: deepfake, MIT Technology Review, Richard Nixon
Understanding statistical error
A simple linear regression model has the form y = μ + βx + ε. This means that the output variable y is a linear function of the input variable x, plus some error term ε that is randomly distributed. There’s a common misunderstanding over whose error the error term …
Census undercount
For NYT Opinion, Gus Wezerek and Andrew Whitby on what might happen if…Tags: census, New York Times, undercount
Expected Value (Formula, Explanation, Everyday Usage and a Game)
Why are people losing at the casinos? Why shouldn’t you buy a lottery ticket? How do you account for uncertainty when you invest a smaller or bigger amount... The post Expected Value (Formula, Explanation, Everyday Usage and a Game) appeared first on Data36.
Audit advanced data science course online
Jeff Leek and Roger Peng started their course Advanced Data Science at Johns…Tags: course, data science, Jeff Leek, Johns Hopkins, Roger Peng
Minimizing risk
For NYT Opinion, Aaron E. Carroll on doing small things that sum to…Tags: coronavirus, New York Times, risk
Optimizing a peanut butter and banana sandwich
How do you assemble a banana and peanut butter sandwich that maximizes the…Tags: deep learning, optimization, sandwich
Hypothesis Test for Comparing Machine Learning Algorithms
Machine learning models are chosen based on their mean performance, often calculated using k-fold cross-validation. The algorithm with the best mean performance is expected to be better than those algorithms with worse mean performance. But what if the difference in the mean performance is caused by a statistical fluke? The …
Inference of key shape from the sound it makes in the lock
Researchers from the National University of Singapore found a way to infer key…Tags: keys, security, unlock
Census counting during the pandemic
Reporting for The New York Times, Giovanni Russonello on the decennial census during…Tags: census, coronavirus, imputation, New York Times
What YouTube recommendations look like for others
Watch enough YouTube, and you end up in a bubble of videos catered…Tags: recommendations, YouTube
Tracking what happens to police after use of force on protestors
You’ve probably seen the videos. ProPublica is tracking to see what happens after:…Tags: force, police, ProPublica, protest
Tic-Tac-Toe the Hard Way is a podcast about the human decisions in building a machine learning system
From Google’s People + AI Research team, David Weinberger and Yannick Assogba build…Tags: Google, machine learning, podcast, Tic-Tac-Toe
Understanding Covid-19 statistics
For ProPublica, Caroline Chen, with graphics by Ash Ngu, provides a guide on…Tags: coronavirus, ProPublica, teaching, uncertainty
Book Review: Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way by Will Kurt
"Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, Lego, and Rubber Ducks," by Will Kurt (2019 No Starch Press) is an excellent introduction to subjects critical to all data scientists. Will Kurt, in fact, is a data scientist! I always advise my data science classes at …
