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Tag: Probability

Crows might understand probabilities
Researchers at the University of Tübingen are studying crows’ abilities to understand statistical…Tags: Ars Technica, birds, probability
Changes to Blackjack payouts so that gamblers lose more to casinos
Katherine Sayre, for The Wall Street Journal, on Las Vegas casinos squeezing out…Tags: gambling, Las Vegas, probability
Impossible or improbable lottery results
There was a government-run lottery in the Philippines with a $4 million jackpot,…Tags: lottery, probability
Introduction to Probability for Data Science, a free book
Introduction to Probability for Data Science is a free-to-download book by Purdue statistics…Tags: book, probability, Stanley Chan
Odds of winning the big Mega Millions prize
With tonight’s Mega Millions jackpot estimated at $1.28 billion, you might be wondering…Tags: lottery, probability
Calculating win probabilities
Zack Capozzi, for USA Lacrosse Magazine, explains how he calculates win probabilities pre-game…Tags: probability, sports, Zack Capozzi
A Gentle Introduction to Computational Learning Theory
Computational learning theory, or statistical learning theory, refers to mathematical frameworks for quantifying learning tasks and algorithms. These are sub-fields of machine learning that a machine learning practitioner does not need to know in great depth in order to achieve good results on a wide range of problems. Nevertheless, it …
New Statistics Course: Conditional Probability in R
Learn the fundamentals of conditional probability in R with this interactive statistics course. Master Naive Bayes and learn to build a spam filter with R! The post New Statistics Course: Conditional Probability in R appeared first on Dataquest.
Develop an Intuition for Bayes Theorem With Worked Examples
Bayes Theorem provides a principled way for calculating a conditional probability. It is a deceptively simple calculation, providing a method that is easy to use for scenarios where our intuition often fails. The best way to develop an intuition for Bayes Theorem is to think about the meaning of the …
A Gentle Introduction to the Bayes Optimal Classifier
The Bayes Optimal Classifier is a probabilistic model that makes the most probable prediction for a new example. It is described using the Bayes Theorem that provides a principled way for calculating a conditional probability. It is also closely related to the Maximum a Posteriori: a probabilistic framework referred to …
Looking for similar NBA games, based on win probability time series
Inpredictable, a sports analytics site by Michael Beuoy, tracks win probabilities of NBA…Tags: basketball, probability
How to Use an Empirical Distribution Function in Python
An empirical distribution function provides a way to model and sample cumulative probabilities for a data sample that does not fit a standard probability distribution. As such, it is sometimes called the empirical cumulative distribution function, or ECDF for short. In this tutorial, you will discover the empirical probability distribution …
Free Probability Textbook
Introduction to Probability by Joseph Blitzstein and Jessica Hwang is available as a free PDF download. The book contains: Distributions Random Variables Markov Chains Monte Carlo All the background Math Code Examples in R and lots more….
A Gentle Introduction to Stochastic in Machine Learning
The behavior and performance of many machine learning algorithms are referred to as stochastic. Stochastic refers to a variable process where the outcome involves some randomness and has some uncertainty. It is a mathematical term and is closely related to “randomness” and “probabilistic” and can be contrasted to the idea …
A Gentle Introduction to Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) for Machine Learning
Density estimation is the problem of estimating the probability distribution for a sample of observations from a problem domain. Typically, estimating the entire distribution is intractable, and instead, we are happy to have the expected value of the distribution, such as the mean or mode. Maximum a Posteriori or MAP …
A Gentle Introduction to Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Probability
Probabilistic inference involves estimating an expected value or density using a probabilistic model. Often, directly inferring values is not tractable with probabilistic models, and instead, approximation methods must be used. Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling provides a class of algorithms for systematic random sampling from high-dimensional probability distributions. Unlike Monte …
A Gentle Introduction to Monte Carlo Sampling for Probability
Monte Carlo methods are a class of techniques for randomly sampling a probability distribution. There are many problem domains where describing or estimating the probability distribution is relatively straightforward, but calculating a desired quantity is intractable. This may be due to many reasons, such as the stochastic nature of the …
A Gentle Introduction to Expectation Maximization (EM Algorithm)
Maximum likelihood estimation is an approach to density estimation for a dataset by searching across probability distributions and their parameters. It is a general and effective approach that underlies many machine learning algorithms, although it requires that the training dataset is complete, e.g. all relevant interacting random variables are present. …